Accounting for over a quarter of UK carbon emissions, the transport sector presents both a challenge and an opportunity in the battle against climate change. Yet, the solution to its impact may be as simple as changing how people choose to travel.
What is modal shift?
Modal shift refers to the transition from one mode of transportation to another, typically from high-emission vehicles such as cars and planes to more environmentally friendly alternatives such as trains and buses. A 2024 report by the Zemo Partnership found that if people were to change their travel habits by driving less and using cleaner transport options then surface transport emissions could reduce by 70% by 2035*. This is particularly significant since transport is the largest emitting sector of the UK economy at 26% of emissions*.
The idea of modal shift is not new, but has become more critical as cities and nations grapple with net-zero targets. Public transport operators, are embracing innovation, with new business models, digitalisation, investment and customer offerings, to compete with private cars and short-haul flights on the convenience, reliability, and affordability that modern travellers demand.
First Rail - open access
Launched in 2021, our open access service Lumo, has positioned itself as a credible alternative to domestic flights on the route between London and Edinburgh. In its first year, Lumo attracted a million passengers and saw rail overtake air travel to become the preferred mode of transport between Edinburgh and London for the first time. Operating 100% electric trains, Lumo offers affordable fares. Emissions avoidance studies in collaboration with ARUP show that journeys on various routes emit up to 95% less carbon emissions than flying or driving. Data clearly sets out that the presence of open access rail services, alongside nationally-contracted operators, grows passenger numbers overall. For example, Lumo has helped generate 6.2m additional journeys on the East Coast Mainline since it launched in 2021, even though just 3.9m of them were carried on Lumo trains. An example of additional journey creation, is the early morning service to Newcastle, allowing people to reach their destination by 8.45am.
Similarly, Hull Trains has pioneered a customer-first approach on its London-to-Hull route. Its modern fleet, introduced in 2019, operate on bi-mode technology meaning they can switch from diesel fuel to electric, when available, reducing emissions by 65% compared to the diesel only fleet they replaced. Hull Trains offers a low-emission alternative to driving, while maintaining travel flexibility, with emissions avoidance studies showing that passengers can save over 90% of emissions on all routes surveyed. Its focus on reliable and direct services, free Wi-Fi, and premium seating options demonstrates that sustainability need not come at the expense of comfort or efficiency.
The benefits of modal shift
The benefits of modal shift extend far beyond emissions reduction. Encouraging people to choose public transport over their cars reduces congestion and noise pollution, improves air quality, and frees up urban space. Accessible and affordable public transport fosters inclusivity, connecting people to jobs, education, and healthcare. FirstGroup’s extensive bus networks across the UK can level the playing field, particularly in under-served communities.
Modal shift brings considerable economic benefits. Investing in public transportation infrastructure creates jobs and stimulates local economies. Moreover, improved public transportation can enhance accessibility, and is often fundamental to customers independence, particularly those with disabilities or mobility issues.. An economic impact study published in 2024 found that the quantified benefits of Lumo are estimated to amount to £470m-740m during the period from its launch up until 2033. This includes faster journeys and fare savings for passengers, support for tourism, reduced congestion and lower carbon emissions due to modal shift.
Conclusion
For modal shift to succeed at scale, governments and operators must work hand in hand. Policies like congestion pricing and investments in rail electrification are essential to tip the scales in favour of sustainable transport.As the world races to decarbonize, the importance of modal shift cannot be overstated. It is not merely a transport strategy but a societal imperative, reshaping how we move for the benefit of both people and the planet. With innovation and commitment, the shift is not only possible but inevitable. The journey has begun.
*Source: zemo.org.uk/assets/other/Delivery Roadmap report - Zemo Partnership - single page.pdf