Outlook

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First Bus

First Rail

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Outlook

Current trading and the outlook for FY 2026 remain in line with the Group’s expectations:
- The Group expects to at least maintain adjusted earnings per share in FY 2026
- First Bus: further adjusted operating profit progress anticipated in FY 2026 driven by First Bus London, productivity, overhead and yield improvements, the contribution of businesses acquired in FY 2024 and FY 2025 and growth in Adjacent services, partially offset by inflationary pressures
- First Rail: adjusted revenue and adjusted operating profit will be marginally lower, reflecting lower fees following the transfer of SWR to public ownership and a normalised level of DfT TOC variable fees offset by continued revenue growth in the current open access operations, tempered by mobilisation costs for the new open access operations
Annualised cost savings of at least £15m being delivered in H1 2026 as a result of business restructuring
Adjusted net debt position expected to be in the range of £120-130m at the end of FY 2026, reflecting strong cash generation, investment in decarbonisation and before any deployment of growth capital
As the DfT TOCs transition to public ownership, we anticipate a cash inflow of c.£120m from the DfT TOCs, after any reorganisation cash costs the Group may incur, over a three-year period from April 2025, with cash received from the management fees a year in arrears. This includes earnings from the Additional services businesses that are expected to continue supporting the DfT TOCs for a year after their contracts end, as required under the National Rail Contracts
We will participate in upcoming regional bus franchising and other UK rail opportunities and continue to evaluate a pipeline of value-accretive inorganic growth opportunities in line with the Group’s disciplined capital allocation policy

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